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Does vertical integration reduce investment reluctance in production chains? An agent-based real options approach AgEcon
Balmann, Alfons; Musshoff, Oliver; Larsen, Karin.
This paper uses an agent-based real options approach to analyze whether stronger vertical integration reduces investment reluctance in pork production. A competitive model in which firms identify optimal investment strategies by using genetic algorithms is developed. Two production systems are compared: a perfectly integrated system and a system in which firms produce either the intermediate product (piglets) or the final product (pork). Simulations show that the spot market solution and the perfectly integrated system lead to a very similar production dynamics even with limited information on production capacities. The results suggest that, from a pure real options perspective, spot markets are not significantly inferior to perfectly integrated supply...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Real options; Supply chain; Agent-based models; Genetic algorithms; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59521
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Empirically Based, Agent-based models Ecology and Society
Janssen, Marco A; Arizona State University; Marco.Janssen@asu.edu; Ostrom, Elinor; Indiana University and Arizona State University; ostrom@indiana.edu.
There is an increasing drive to combine agent-based models with empirical methods. An overview is provided of the various empirical methods that are used for different kinds of questions. Four categories of empirical approaches are identified in which agent-based models have been empirically tested: case studies, stylized facts, role-playing games, and laboratory experiments. We discuss how these different types of empirical studies can be combined. The various ways empirical techniques are used illustrate the main challenges of contemporary social sciences: (1) how to develop models that are generalizable and still applicable in specific cases, and (2) how to scale up the processes of interactions of a few agents to interactions among many agents.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Agent-based models; Empirical applications; Social science methods.
Ano: 2006
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How appropriate are myopic optimization models to predict decision behaviour: A comparison between agent-based models and business management games AgEcon
Appel, Franziska; Musshoff, Oliver.
Agent-based models (ABM) are used in many cases of policy assessment in agriculture. But the behavioural assumptions of these models consider farmers as myopic optimizing profit maximizers. In this contribution we compare the behaviour of myopic computer agents with the behaviour of students playing a multi period business management game. We aim to answer the question, how far are agent-based models valid to map “real” human behaviour, so that ABM can be used well for policy impact assessment.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agent-based models; Business management games; Policy impact analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C63; C93; D22; Q18.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115994
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Incorporating Spatial Complexity into Economic Models of Land Markets and Land Use Change AgEcon
Chen, Yong; Irwin, Elena G.; Jayaprakash, Ciriyam.
Recent work in regional science, geography, and urban economics has advanced spatial modeling of land markets and land use by incorporating greater spatial complexity, including multiple sources of spatial heterogeneity, multiple spatial scales, and spatial dynamics. Doing so has required a move away from relying solely on analytical models to partial or full reliance on computational methods that can account for these added features of spatial complexity. In the first part of the paper, we review economic models of urban land development that have incorporated greater spatial complexity, focusing on spatial simulation models with spatial endogenous feedbacks and multiple sources of spatial heterogeneity. The second part of the paper presents a spatial...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Urban growth; Urbanization; Land development; Spatial dynamics; Heterogeneity; Agent-based models; Spatial interactions; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120644
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Multiactor Modeling of Settling Decisions and Behavior in the San Mariano Watershed, the Philippines: a First Application with the MameLuke Framework Ecology and Society
Huigen, Marco G. A.; Leiden University; mhuigen@uni-hohenheim.de; Overmars, Koen P.; Leiden University; overmars@cml.leidenuniv.nl; de Groot, Wouter T.; Leiden University; degroot@cml.leidenuniv.nl.
Land-use system dynamics and demographic dynamics are tightly coupled. In environmental science and studies of changes in land use and land cover, an unequivocal relationship is sometimes found between both systems, especially in coarse-scale studies. To obtain a better understanding of these intermingling dynamics, we formulated an agent-based model, the MameLuke settlement model, that used a deductive approach to investigate these relationships. The model was constructed based on ethnographic histories of farm households in San Mariano, the Philippines. The model was calibrated visually. Although this calibration approach proved to be very inefficient, the model itself still outperformed a random model. The model formulation process and the model...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Actor decision-making; Agent-based models; Ethnic distribution; Ethnographic history; Land-use dynamics; Mameluke framework; Philippines; Population dynamics.
Ano: 2006
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Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests Ecology and Society
Guzy, Michael R; Oregon State University, Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering; michael.guzy@oregonstate.edu; Smith, Courtland L; Oregon State University, Department of Anthropology; csmith@oregonstate.edu; Bolte, John P; Oregon State University, Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering; boltej@engr.orst.edu; Hulse, David W; University of Oregon, Department of Landscape Architecture; dhulse@uoregon.edu; Gregory, Stanley V; Oregon State University, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife; stanley.gregory@oregonstate.edu.
The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Social-ecological systems; Agricultural-urban interface; Fish habitat; Ecosystem health; Urban containment policies; Agent-based models.
Ano: 2008
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The Tragedy of the Park: an Agent-based Model of Endogenous and Exogenous Institutions for Forest Management Ecology and Society
Vallino, Elena; Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Torino, Italy; elenavallino@hotmail.com.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agent-based models; Commons; Institutions; Participatory conservation; Protected areas.
Ano: 2014
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